The Bosses
Bill Clinton is the man everyone in Washington thought would buckle. He hasn’t. But his resistance may be crumbling. He’d like to claim credit for a balanced-budget agreement during the campaign. In the opposing camp, Newt Gingrich desperately wants a budget deal to certify his leadership. But last week he spooked the financial markets when he said no deal would likely be struck until after the November elections. Bob Dole, the man senators respectfully call “the Leader,” shudders at the idea of Washington causing a stock-market collapse. Dole lives to deal, and mediating a budget pact would be his best deal yet.
The Number Crunchers
Leon Panetta, Clinton’s chief of staff and top budget negotiator, persuaded Clinton not to balance the budget on GOP terms. He’s played the intransigent tough guy at the negotiating table, wringing many concessions from the GOP. If Clinton gets a deal Democrats can live with, Panetta will be a major reason. On the Republican side, Gingrich and Dole aren’t likely to sign off on a deal unless it’s blessed by House Budget chairman John Kasieh and his Senate counterpart, Pete Domenici. Both men are the key architects of the GOP budget plan. They are also viewed in both parties as two of the most credible participants in the budget debate.
The Loose Cannons
They’re not on the nightly news as often as they used to be, but George Stephanopoulos and Harold Ickes still speak to Clinton’s liberal conscience and his political instincts. They didn’t want Clinton to agree to a seven-year budget deal because they thought the cuts in Medicaid would hurt the poor, and the cuts in Medicare would cost Clinton votes. They also think the budget impasse can be used to political advantage on the campaign trail. On the Republican side, key players like House Majority Leader Dick Armey, Tom DeLay and John Boehner are quietly beginning to desert their boss and oppose any further compromises. They’re convinced Clinton doesn’t want a balanced budget and think the public will blame him and put a Republican in the White House.
Congressional Liberals
Many House Democrats are worried about their own re-election prospects. At home, their supporters would prefer no budget deal to a conservative one. The liberals are pushing Clinton to avoid too much compromise.
The Men in the Middle
Republican John Chafee and Democrat John Breaux could be the way out of this mess. They’re putting together a budget of their own, drawing on the strengths of both sides’ plans. With the party leaders increasingly trapped by their own partisan rhetoric, the moderates’ high-minded argument that the country needs a budget deal could provide cover for both sides.
